Report on Strategic Modeling Results and Favorable Energy Efficiency Scenarios (Only in Lithuanian, English summary available)

This report introduces the energy efficiency governance model for Lithuania's industry, as well as an overview of the scenarios modeled based on this framework.

The need and assumptions for the creation of this model are shaped by the general EU-level objectives for clean energy and climate by 2030, which include:

• Reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
• Expanding the scope of electricity grid connections.
• Ensuring a minimum share of renewable energy (32%).
• Achieving a minimum increase in energy efficiency (32.5%).

These objectives aim to ensure energy security, develop the internal energy market, improve energy efficiency, reduce dependence on fossil fuels, and strengthen competitiveness (through scientific research and innovation). Specific national directions and targets for Lithuania are outlined in the National Energy and Climate Plan, which is updated periodically.

Achieving these goals critically requires an appropriate data collection, storage, monitoring, and analysis tool—an energy efficiency governance model.

Within the framework of the LIFE IP EnerLIT project, a macro model has been developed, encompassing energy indicators at the national level. However, this model operates with cumulative data and, therefore, does not reveal all the necessary aspects for effective governance, such as which indicators or critical energy efficiency factors influence observed changes. Therefore, this document proposes a mezzo-level energy efficiency model for Lithuania's industry, which would allow for more effective evaluation of the dynamics of critical energy efficiency monitoring indicators and, based on these, make data-driven decisions regarding industrial energy efficiency policies (for example, in the formulation of financial instruments).